Defining remission in childhood-onset lupus: PReS-endorsed consensus definitions by an international task force.

OBJECTIVE: To derive childhood-onset SLE (cSLE) specific remission definitions for future treat-to-target (T2T) trials, observational studies, and clinical practice. METHODS: The cSLE International T2T Task Force conducted Delphi surveys exploring paediatric perspectives on adult-onset SLE remission targets. A modified nominal group technique was used to discuss, refine, and agree on the cSLE remission target criteria. RESULTS: The Task Force proposed two definitions of remission: 'cSLE clinical remission on steroids (cCR)' and 'cSLE clinical remission off steroids (cCR-0)'. The common criteria are: (1) Clinical-SLEDAI-2 K = 0; (2) PGA score < 0.5 (0-3 scale); (4) stable antimalarials, immunosuppressive, and biologic therapy (changes due to side-effects, adherence, weight, or when building up to target dose allowed). Criterion (3) in cCR is the prednisolone dose ≤0.1 mg/kg/day (maximum 5 mg/day), whereas in cCR-0 it is zero. CONCLUSIONS: cSLE definitions of remission have been proposed, maintaining sufficient alignment with the adult-SLE definition to facilitate life-course research.

PReS-endorsed international childhood lupus T2T task force definition of childhood lupus low disease activity state (cLLDAS).

OBJECTIVE: To achieve a consensus-based definition of Low Disease Activity (LDA) for use in cSLE trials. METHODS: The International cSLE T2T Task Force, comprising of paediatric rheumatologists/nephrologists, and adult rheumatologists undertook a series of Delphi surveys/consensus meetings to discuss, refine, and vote upon cSLE LDA criteria. RESULTS: The Task Force agreed that LDA should be based upon the adult-SLE Lupus Low Disease Activity State definition (LLDAS), with modifications to make it applicable to cSLE (cLLDAS). They agreed upon five cLLDAS criteria: (1) SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI)-2 K ≤4, with no activity in major organ systems; (2) no new features of lupus disease activity compared with the last assessment; (3) Physician Global Assessment score of ≤1 (0-3 scale); (4) prednisolone dose of ≤0.15 mg/kg/day, 7.5 mg/day/maximum; while on (5) stable antimalarials, immunosuppressives, and biologics. CONCLUSIONS: A cSLE-appropriate definition of cLLDAS has been generated, maintaining alignment with the adult-SLE definition to promote life-course research.

Studying the Long-term Impact of COVID-19 in Kids (SLICK). Healthcare use and costs in children and young people following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection: protocol for an observational study using linked primary and secondary routinely collected healthcare data from England, Scotland and Wales.

INTRODUCTION: SARS-CoV-2 infection rarely causes hospitalisation in children and young people (CYP), but mild or asymptomatic infections are common. Persistent symptoms following infection have been reported in CYP but subsequent healthcare use is unclear. We aim to describe healthcare use in CYP following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify those at risk of ongoing healthcare needs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will use anonymised individual-level, population-scale national data linking demographics, comorbidities, primary and secondary care use and mortality between 1 January 2019 and 1 May 2022. SARS-CoV-2 test data will be linked from 1 January 2020 to 1 May 2022. Analyses will use Trusted Research Environments: OpenSAFELY in England, Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank in Wales and Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 in Scotland (EAVE-II). CYP aged ≥4 and <18 years who underwent SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) testing between 1 January 2020 and 1 May 2021 and those untested CYP will be examined.The primary outcome measure is cumulative healthcare cost over 12 months following SARS-CoV-2 testing, stratified into primary or secondary care, and physical or mental healthcare. We will estimate the burden of healthcare use attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections in the 12 months after testing using a matched cohort study of RT-PCR positive, negative or untested CYP matched on testing date, with adjustment for confounders. We will identify factors associated with higher healthcare needs in the 12 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection using an unmatched cohort of RT-PCR positive CYP. Multivariable logistic regression and machine learning approaches will identify risk factors for high healthcare use and characterise patterns of healthcare use post infection. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the South-Central Oxford C Health Research Authority Ethics Committee (13/SC/0149). Findings will be preprinted and published in peer-reviewed journals. Analysis code and code lists will be available through public GitHub repositories and OpenCodelists with meta-data via HDR-UK Innovation Gateway.

Improving communication of the concept of 'treat-to target' in childhood lupus: a public and patient (PPI) engagement project involving children and young people.

BACKGROUND: A treat-to-target (T2T) approach, where treatment is escalated until a specific target is achieved, and re-escalated if the target is lost, has been proposed as a strategy to improve Childhood Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (cSLE) outcomes. Previous studies involving children and young people (CYP) have identified that the concept of T2T can be difficult to understand by CYP and their families. We aimed to explore the views of CYP participating in existing public and patient involvement (PPI) groups in relation to a proposed animation that is being developed to explain the concept of T2T to CYP who will be eligible for a future cSLE T2T trial. METHODS: An illustrated animation storyboard was developed on PowerPoint, to be used alongside a contemporaneous voiceover to simulate the animation for CYP participating in three existing CYP PPI groups (GenerationR, Lupus UK, and YOUR RHEUM). Mixed methods were used to generate CYP feedback on the resource, including on-line surveys and qualitative topic-guided discussion, noting CYP suggestions for improvement. Changes were made iteratively to the resources. Pre/post workshop questionnaires to assess the impact of the resource on their understanding of T2T were completed anonymously. RESULTS: 40 CYP were consulted; 16/40 (40%) from GenerationR (median age 15-years [IQR 12-15]), 12/40 (30%) from Lupus UK (median age 27-years [IQR 22-30]), and 12/40 (30%) from YOUR RHEUM (median age 17-years [IQR 16-21]). 62% of respondents had an underlying rheumatic condition. Pre-workshop median participant understanding of T2T was 2/10 [IQR 1-4], on a 1-10 scale (1 = "no understanding at all", 10 = "completely confident in my understanding"). After viewing the resource, participant understanding improved to a median of 9/10 [IQR 8-10], p < 0.0001). Overall, participants felt that the animation greatly improved their understanding of the concept of T2T, making several suggestions for improvement. CONCLUSION: Involvement of CYP in research is crucial to help improve the design/delivery of studies, ensuring relevance to CYP and their families. This manuscript demonstrates the involvement of CYP in the development of an animation that will be integral to a future clinical trial, helping to describe the T2T approach in a comprehensible way to eligible CYP and their families, supporting study recruitment.

Development of an intervention to increase adherence to nebuliser treatment in adults with cystic fibrosis: CFHealthHub.

BACKGROUND: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a life-limiting genetic condition in which daily therapies to maintain lung health are critical, yet treatment adherence is low. Previous interventions to increase adherence have been largely unsuccessful and this is likely due to a lack of focus on behavioural evidence and theory alongside input from people with CF. This intervention is based on a digital platform that collects and displays objective nebuliser adherence data. The purpose of this paper is to identify the specific components of an intervention to increase and maintain adherence to nebuliser treatments in adults with CF with a focus on reducing effort and treatment burden. METHODS: Intervention development was informed by the Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) and person-based approach (PBA). A multidisciplinary team conducted qualitative research to inform a needs analysis, selected, and refined intervention components and methods of delivery, mapped adherence-related barriers and facilitators, associated intervention functions and behaviour change techniques, and utilised iterative feedback to develop and refine content and processes. RESULTS: Results indicated that people with CF need to understand their treatment, be able to monitor adherence, have treatment goals and feedback and confidence in their ability to adhere, have a treatment plan to develop habits for treatment, and be able to solve problems around treatment adherence. Behaviour change techniques were selected to address each of these needs and were incorporated into the digital intervention developed iteratively, alongside a manual and training for health professionals. Feedback from people with CF and clinicians helped to refine the intervention which could be tailored to individual patient needs. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention development process is underpinned by a strong theoretical framework and evidence base and was developed by a multidisciplinary team with a range of skills and expertise integrated with substantial input from patients and clinicians. This multifaceted development strategy has ensured that the intervention is usable and acceptable to people with CF and clinicians, providing the best chance of success in supporting people with CF with different needs to increase and maintain their adherence. The intervention is being tested in a randomised controlled trial across 19 UK sites.

A national initiative in data science for health: an evaluation of the UK Farr Institute.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the extent to which the inter-institutional, inter-disciplinary mobilisation of data and skills in the Farr Institute contributed to establishing the emerging field of data science for health in the UK. DESIGN AND OUTCOME MEASURES: We evaluated evidence of six domains characterising a new field of science:defining central scientific challenges,demonstrating how the central challenges might be solved,creating novel interactions among groups of scientists,training new types of experts,re-organising universities,demonstrating impacts in society.We carried out citation, network and time trend analyses of publications, and a narrative review of infrastructure, methods and tools. SETTING: Four UK centres in London, North England, Scotland and Wales (23 university partners), 2013-2018. RESULTS: 1. The Farr Institute helped define a central scientific challenge publishing a research corpus, demonstrating insights from electronic health record (EHR) and administrative data at each stage of the translational cycle in 593 papers with at least one Farr Institute author affiliation on PubMed. 2. The Farr Institute offered some demonstrations of how these scientific challenges might be solved: it established the first four ISO27001 certified trusted research environments in the UK, and approved more than 1000 research users, published on 102 unique EHR and administrative data sources, although there was no clear evidence of an increase in novel, sustained record linkages. The Farr Institute established open platforms for the EHR phenotyping algorithms and validations (>70 diseases, CALIBER). Sample sizes showed some evidence of increase but remained less than 10% of the UK population in primary care-hospital care linked studies. 3.The Farr Institute created novel interactions among researchers: the co-author publication network expanded from 944 unique co-authors (based on 67 publications in the first 30 months) to 3839 unique co-authors (545 papers in the final 30 months). 4. Training expanded substantially with 3 new masters courses, training >400 people at masters, short-course and leadership level and 48 PhD students. 5. Universities reorganised with 4/5 Centres established 27 new faculty (tenured) positions, 3 new university institutes. 6. Emerging evidence of impacts included: > 3200 citations for the 10 most cited papers and Farr research informed eight practice-changing clinical guidelines and policies relevant to the health of millions of UK citizens. CONCLUSION: The Farr Institute played a major role in establishing and growing the field of data science for health in the UK, with some initial evidence of benefits for health and healthcare. The Farr Institute has now expanded into Health Data Research (HDR) UK but key challenges remain including, how to network such activities internationally.

Risk factors for Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC) gene acquisition and clinical outcomes across multiple bacterial species.

INTRODUCTION: Risk factors for carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) acquisition/infection and associated clinical outcomes have been evaluated in the context of clonal, species-specific outbreaks. Equivalent analyses for complex, multi-species outbreaks, which are increasingly common, are lacking. METHODS: Between December 2010 and January 2017, a case-control study of Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC)-producing organism (KPCO) acquisition was undertaken using electronic health records from inpatients in a US academic medical centre and long-term acute care hospital (LTACH) with ongoing multi-species KPCO transmission despite a robust CPE screening programme. Cases had a first KPCO-positive culture >48 h after admission, and included colonizations and infections (defined by clinical records). Controls had at least two negative perirectal screens and no positive cultures. Risk factors for KPCO acquisition, first infection following acquisition, and 14-day mortality following each episode of infection were identified using multi-variable logistic regression. RESULTS: In 303 cases (89 with at least one infection) and 5929 controls, risk factors for KPCO acquisition included: longer inpatient stay, transfusion, complex thoracic pathology, mechanical ventilation, dialysis, and exposure to carbapenems and ß-lactam/ß-lactamase inhibitors. Exposure to other KPCO-colonized patients was only a risk factor for acquisition in a single unit, suggesting that direct patient-to-patient transmission did not play a major role. There were 15 species of KPCO; 61 (20%) cases were colonized/infected with more than one species. Fourteen-day mortality following non-urinary KPCO infection was 20% (20/97 episodes) and was associated with failure to achieve source control. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare exposures, antimicrobials and invasive procedures increased the risk of KPCO colonization/infection, suggesting potential targets for infection control interventions in multi-species outbreaks. Evidence for patient-to-patient transmission was limited.

Patient understanding of genetic information influences reproductive decision making in retinoblastoma.

BACKGROUND: Retinoblastoma is the most common malignant tumour of the eye in childhood, with nearly all bilateral tumours and around 17% to 18% of unilateral tumours due to an oncogenic mutation in the RB1 gene in the germline. Genetic testing enables accurate risk assessment and optimal clinical management for the affected individual, siblings, and future offspring. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We carried out the first UK-wide audit of understanding of genetic testing in individuals with retinoblastoma. A total of 292 individuals aged 16 to 45 years were included. RESULTS: Patients with bilateral disease were significantly more likely to understand the implications of retinoblastoma for siblings and children. There was a significant association between not knowing the results of genetic testing or not understanding the implications and not having children, particularly in women. Surprisingly, this was also true for individuals treated for unilateral disease with a low risk of retinoblastoma for their offspring. CONCLUSION: We are concerned that individuals may be making life choices based on insufficient information regarding risks of retinoblastoma and reproductive options. We suggest that improvement in transition care is needed to enable individuals to make informed reproductive decisions and to ensure optimal care for children born at risk of retinoblastoma.

Use of plasma human herpesvirus-8 viral load measurement: evaluation of practice in three UK HIV treatment centres.

A retrospective audit of plasma human herpesvirus-8 (HHV-8) viral load testing was performed in three HIV treatment centres over 24 months. Reasons for testing (360 tests) were: symptoms of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (fever, lymphadenopathy and raised inflammatory markers); monitoring in known HHV-8 pathology other than Kaposi sarcoma (KS); investigation of known/suspected KS, and other/no reason. Of patients with multicentric Castleman disease (MCD), 14/16 (88%) had detectable plasma HHV-8, as did 27/45 (60%) with biopsy proven or clinically confirmed KS, and 6/19 (32%) with lymphoma. Neither of the two patients with MCD and no detectable HHV-8 had SIRS symptoms at the time of the test. There was wide variation between centres in the indications prompting HHV-8 testing, with a more conservative approach resulting in a higher proportion of positive results. Measuring plasma HHV-8 in the absence of SIRS symptoms, established HHV-8 disease monitoring, or confirmed/suspected KS is unlikely to yield detectable HHV-8 thus allowing potential cost savings.

Combining Health Data Uses to Ignite Health System Learning.

OBJECTIVES: In this paper we aim to characterise the critical mass of linked data, methods and expertise required for health systems to adapt to the needs of the populations they serve - more recently known as learning health systems. The objectives are to: 1) identify opportunities to combine separate uses of common data sources in order to reduce duplication of data processing and improve information quality; 2) identify challenges in scaling-up the reuse of health data sufficiently to support health system learning. METHODS: The challenges and opportunities were identified through a series of e-health stakeholder consultations and workshops in Northern England from 2011 to 2014. From 2013 the concepts presented here have been refined through feedback to collaborators, including patient/citizen representatives, in a regional health informatics research network (www.herc.ac.uk). RESULTS: Health systems typically have separate information pipelines for: 1) commissioning services; 2) auditing service performance; 3) managing finances; 4) monitoring public health; and 5) research. These pipelines share common data sources but usually duplicate data extraction, aggregation, cleaning/preparation and analytics. Suboptimal analyses may be performed due to a lack of expertise, which may exist elsewhere in the health system but is fully committed to a different pipeline. Contextual knowledge that is essential for proper data analysis and interpretation may be needed in one pipeline but accessible only in another. The lack of capable health and care intelligence systems for populations can be attributed to a legacy of three flawed assumptions: 1) universality: the generalizability of evidence across populations; 2) time-invariance: the stability of evidence over time; and 3) reducibility: the reduction of evidence into specialised sub-systems that may be recombined. CONCLUSIONS: We conceptualize a population health and care intelligence system capable of supporting health system learning and we put forward a set of maturity tests of progress toward such a system. A factor common to each test is data-action latency; a mature system spawns timely actions proportionate to the information that can be derived from the data, and in doing so creates meaningful measurement about system learning. We illustrate, using future scenarios, some major opportunities to improve health systems by exchanging conventional intelligence pipelines for networked critical masses of data, methods and expertise that minimise data-action latency and ignite system-learning.

On moving targets and magic bullets: Can the UK lead the way with responsible data linkage for health research?

PURPOSE: To provide an overview of essential elements of good governance of data linkage for health-related research, to consider lessons learned so far and to examine key factors currently impeding the delivery of good governance in this area. Given the considerable hurdles which must be overcome and the changing landscape of health research and data linkage, a principled, proportionate, risk-based approach to governance is advocated. DISCUSSION: In light of the considerable value of data linkage to health and well-being, the United Kingdom aspires to design and deliver good governance in health-related research. A string of projects have been asking: what does good governance look like in data linkage for health research? It is argued here that considerable progress can and must be made in order to develop the UK's contribution to future health and wealth economies, particularly in light of mis-start initiatives such as care.data in NHS England. Discussion centres around lessons learned from previous successful health research initiatives, identifying those governance mechanisms which are essential to achieving good governance. CONCLUSION: This article suggests that a crucial element in any step-increase of research capability will be the adoption of adaptive governance models. These must recognise a range of approaches to delivering safe and effective data linkage, while remaining responsive to public and research user expectations and needs as these shift and change with time and experience. The targets are multiple and constantly moving. There is not--nor should we seek--a single magic bullet in delivering good governance in health research.

Avascular necrosis in HIV patients: a case-control study.

This study investigates the association of avascular necrosis (AVN) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals with possible risk factors, including antiretroviral therapy. Clinic records of all AVN cases diagnosed up to July 2009 in HIV-positive patients attending North Middlesex Hospital, London, UK were retrospectively reviewed. For each case, one control was randomly selected, matched for gender, age, nadir CD4 count and date of HIV diagnosis. Of 15 symptomatic AVN cases identified, eight were in women. Univariate analysis demonstrated significant associations between AVN and a history of systemic steroid use (p = 0.004) and cumulative exposure to protease inhibitor (p = 0.03). Physicians should be aware of the risk of AVN with steroid use, the importance of early diagnosis and avoidance of other risk factors in order to prevent further joint involvement if possible.

Affective instability prior to and after thoughts about self-injury in individuals with and at-risk of psychosis: a mobile phone based study.

It has been proposed that affective instability may be associated with thoughts about self-injury. The aim of this study was to test the hypotheses that instability in feelings of depression, but not anxiety, guilt, or hostility, would predict greater concurrent and subsequent thoughts about self-injury. Thirty-six individuals with psychosis completed questions on touch-screen mobile phones at semi-random times each day for one week. The instability of depression predicted greater concurrent and subsequent levels of thoughts about self-injury, even when controlling for depression level. Conversely, self-injurious thoughts predicted more stable depression. The instability of guilt, anxiety, and hostility did not significantly predict levels of thoughts about self-injury. Results indicate that a variable depressive state may trigger the onset of thoughts about self-injury, which increases the risk of its subsequent recurrence. The onset of self-injurious thoughts may, however, have a stabilizing effect on subsequent depression.

Non-uptake of highly active antiretroviral therapy among patients with a CD4 count < 350 cells/µL in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: Current British HIV Association (BHIVA) guidelines recommend that all patients with a CD4 count <350 cells/µL are offered highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We identified risk factors for delayed initiation of HAART following a CD4 count <350 cells/µL. METHODS: All adults under follow-up in 2008 who had a first confirmed CD4 count <350 cells/µL from 2004 to 2008, who had not initiated treatment and who had >6 months of follow-up were included in the study. Characteristics at the time of the low CD4 cell count and over follow-up were compared to identify factors associated with delayed HAART uptake. Analyses used proportional hazards regression with fixed (sex/risk group, age, ethnicity, AIDS, baseline CD4 cell count and calendar year) and time-updated (frequency of CD4 cell count measurement, proportion of CD4 counts <350 cells/µL, latest CD4 cell count, CD4 percentage and viral load) covariates. RESULTS: Of 4871 patients with a confirmed low CD4 cell count, 436 (8.9%) remained untreated. In multivariable analyses, those starting HAART were older [adjusted relative hazard (aRH)/10 years 1.15], were more likely to be female heterosexual (aRH 1.13), were more likely to have had AIDS (aRH 1.14), had a greater number of CD4 measurements < 350 cells/µL (aRH/additional count 1.18), had a lower CD4 count over follow-up (aRH/50 cells/µL higher 0.57), had a lower CD4 percentage (aRH/5% higher 0.90) and had a higher viral load (aRH/log(10) HIV-1 RNA copies/ml higher 1.06). Injecting drug users (aRH 0.53), women infected with HIV via nonsexual or injecting drug use routes (aRH 0.75) and those of unknown ethnicity (aRH 0.69) were less likely to commence HAART. CONCLUSION: A substantial minority of patients with a CD4 count < 350 cells/µL remain untreated despite its indication.

IMPACT: a generic tool for modelling and simulating public health policy.

BACKGROUND: Populations are under-served by local health policies and management of resources. This partly reflects a lack of realistically complex models to enable appraisal of a wide range of potential options. Rising computing power coupled with advances in machine learning and healthcare information now enables such models to be constructed and executed. However, such models are not generally accessible to public health practitioners who often lack the requisite technical knowledge or skills. OBJECTIVES: To design and develop a system for creating, executing and analysing the results of simulated public health and healthcare policy interventions, in ways that are accessible and usable by modellers and policy-makers. METHODS: The system requirements were captured and analysed in parallel with the statistical method development for the simulation engine. From the resulting software requirement specification the system architecture was designed, implemented and tested. A model for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) was created and validated against empirical data. RESULTS: The system was successfully used to create and validate the CHD model. The initial validation results show concordance between the simulation results and the empirical data. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated the ability to connect health policy-modellers and policy-makers in a unified system, thereby making population health models easier to share, maintain, reuse and deploy.

Long-term trends in CD4 cell counts and impact of viral failure in individuals starting antiretroviral therapy: UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to describe trends in CD4 cell counts in HIV-infected patients after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), according to CD4 cell count at initiation (baseline), and to quantify the implications of virological failure for these trends. METHODS: Eligible participants from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) were antiretroviralnaïve and started cART after 1997. Random effects were used to model CD4 cell count trends, accounting for multiple measurements within participants. We assessed whether CD4 cell count trends varied according to baseline CD4 cell count and separately in participants with and without post-cART virological failure. Effects of post-cART virological failure (>1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) on subsequent CD4 cell counts were evaluated. FINDINGS: A total of 7069 participants were included in the analysis (median follow-up in all baseline CD4 cell count groups was ≥ 35 months). Among participants without virological failure ≥ 6 months after the start of cART, CD4 cell counts continued to increase up to 8 years, with little evidence that differences between baseline CD4 cell count groups diminished over time. Virological failure ≥ 6 months after the start of cART was associated with lower subsequent CD4 cell counts, with greater CD4 cell count reduction for more recent virological failure and higher viral load. CONCLUSIONS: Post-cART CD4 cell counts are strongly related to pre-cART CD4 cell counts. CD4 cell count recovery is greatest in individuals who can avoid viral loads >1000 copies/mL while on cART.

Antiretroviral therapy CNS penetration and HIV-1-associated CNS disease.

OBJECTIVE: The impact of different antiretroviral agents on the risk of developing or surviving CNS disease remains unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate whether using antiretroviral regimens with higher CNS penetration effectiveness (CPE) scores was associated with reduced incidence of CNS disease and improved survival in the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) Study. METHODS: Adults without previous CNS disease, who commenced combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) between 1996 and 2008, were included (n = 22,356). Initial and most recent cART CPE scores were calculated. CNS diseases were HIV encephalopathy (HIVe), progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), cerebral toxoplasmosis (TOXO), and cryptococcal meningitis (CRYPTO). Incidence rates and overall survival were stratified by CPE score. A multivariable Poisson regression model was used to identify independent associations. RESULTS: The median (interquartile range) CPE score for initial cART regimen increased from 7 (5-8) in 1996-1997 to 9 (8-10) in 2000-2001 and subsequently declined to 6 (7-8) in 2006-2008. Differences in gender, HIV acquisition risk group, and ethnicity existed between CPE score strata. A total of 251 subjects were diagnosed with a CNS disease (HIVe 80; TOXO 59; CRYPTO 56; PML 54). CNS diseases occurred more frequently in subjects prescribed regimens with CPE scores ≤ 4, and less frequently in those with scores ≥ 10; however, these differences were nonsignificant. Initial and most recent cART CPE scores ≤ 4 were independently associated with increased risk of death. CONCLUSION: Clinical status at time of commencing cART influences antiretroviral selection and CPE score. This information should be considered when utilizing CPE scores for retrospective analyses.

Trends over calendar time in antiretroviral treatment success and failure in HIV clinic populations.

OBJECTIVE: Effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) has transformed the care of people with HIV, but it is important to monitor time trends in indicators of treatment success and antic future changes. METHODS: We assessed time trends from 2000 to 2007 in several indicators of treatment success in the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) Study, and using national HIV data from the Health Protection Agency (HPA) we developed a model to project future trends. RESULTS: The proportion of patients on ART with a viral load <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL increased from 62% in 2000 to 84% in 2007, and the proportion of all patients with a CD4 count <200 cells/microL decreased from 21% to 10%. During this period, the number of patients who experienced extensive triple class failure (ETCF) rose from 147 (0.9%) to 1771 (3.9%). The number who experienced such ETCF and had a current viral load >50 copies/mL rose fromz 118 (0.7%) to 857 (1.9%). Projections to 2012 suggest sustained high levels of success, with a continued increase in the number of patients who have failed multiple drugs but a relatively stable number of such patients experiencing viral loads >50 copies/mL. Numbers of deaths are projected to remain low. CONCLUSIONS: There have been continued improvements in key indicators of success in patients with HIV from 2000 to 2007. Although the number of patients who have ETCF is projected to rise in the future, the number of such patients with viral loads >50 copies/mL is not projected to increase up to 2012. New drugs may be needed in future to sustain these positive trends.

Novel drug resistance pattern associated with the mutations K70G and M184V in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 reverse transcriptase.

We describe an unusual pathway of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 reverse transcriptase resistance during therapy with tenofovir-emtricitabine, characterized initially by the mutations K70E and M184V and later by K70G and M184V, with the two mutations coexisting on the same viral genome. Phenotypic resistance to lamivudine, emtricitabine, abacavir, didanosine, and tenofovir was observed, whereas susceptibility to zidovudine and stavudine was preserved.